海曼·明斯基

美国 · 1919–1996

美国经济学家,以其金融不稳定假说闻名,该假说认为金融市场的稳定不可避免地导致投机、过度杠杆化和最终的危机。

维基百科 ↗

“A fundamental characteristic of our economy is that the financial system swings between robustness and fragility and these swings are an integral part of the process that generates business cycles.”

英语

“我们经济的一个根本特征是,金融体系在稳健与脆弱之间摇摆,而这些摇摆是产生经济周期的过程的有机组成部分。”

"它"会再次发生吗?

“Stability is destabilizing. The more stable things become and the longer things are stable, the more unstable they will be when the crisis hits.”

英语

“稳定本身就是不稳定的根源。事情越稳定、稳定的时间越长,危机到来时就会越不稳定。”

稳定不稳定的经济

“Success breeds a disregard of the possibility of failure; the absence of serious financial difficulties over a substantial period leads to the development of a euphoric economy in which increasing short-term financing of long positions becomes a normal way of life.”

英语

“成功滋生了对失败可能性的漠视;相当长一段时期内严重金融困难的缺席,导致了一种亢奋经济的发展——在其中,以越来越多的短期融资来支撑长期头寸成为一种正常的生活方式。”

稳定不稳定的经济

“There is no final solution to the problems of organizing economic life. There is nothing to do but to keep trying.”

英语

“组织经济生活的问题没有最终解决方案。我们能做的只是不断尝试。”

稳定不稳定的经济

“In Ponzi finance, the cash flows from operations are not sufficient to fulfill either the repayment of principal or the interest due on outstanding debts by their cash flows from operations. Such units can sell assets or borrow. Borrowing to pay interest is Ponzi finance.”

英语

“在庞氏融资中,经营性现金流不足以偿还未偿债务的本金或利息。这类单位可以出售资产或借款。以借款支付利息就是庞氏融资。”

稳定不稳定的经济

“The processes of a capitalist economy are essentially financial. Money is not just a veil. The financial structure is a central determinant of the behavior of a capitalist economy.”

英语

“资本主义经济的过程本质上是金融性的。货币不仅仅是一层面纱。金融结构是资本主义经济行为的核心决定因素。”

稳定不稳定的经济

“The first theorem of the financial instability hypothesis is that the economy has financing regimes under which it is stable, and financing regimes in which it is unstable. The second theorem is that over periods of prolonged prosperity, the economy transits from financial relations that make for a stable system to financial relations that make for an unstable system.”

英语

“金融不稳定假说的第一定理是:经济存在使其稳定的融资体制,也存在使其不稳定的融资体制。第二定理是:在长期繁荣中,经济会从有利于系统稳定的金融关系过渡到有利于系统不稳定的金融关系。”

金融不稳定假说